Bushra Gabreldar. Originally published in Spring 2018.

In November 2015, the United Nations Climate Change Conference ushered in a new era of international climate change policy. The debate surrounding the conference reminded us that climate change is a threat to all nations and people, a challenge for all of humanity to face. The world was in awe of the Paris Climate Accord’s widespread success, not simply for its policy ramifications, but also because, for once, it brought a divided planet together.

In June 2017, the international community watched in horror as the United States withdrew from the Agreement. Though numerous remaining nations affirmed their commitment to the Accord, the US withdrawal saw much of the Agreement’s momentum evaporate and dealt a major blow to the very idea of international cooperation in combating climate change. Perhaps equally as importantly, America’s decision to look inward forced the world to look elsewhere for leadership in the fight against climate change.

Though a landmark piece of international legislation and, at the time, a decisive victory for the post-war geopolitical world order, the Agreement will not slow global warming enough. The 2017 Emissions Gap Report of the United Nations Environment Program warned that greenhouse gas emissions targets exceed those needed to prevent a two-degree Celsius rise in average global surface temperatures. Due to this major shortcoming, the Agreement is not considered a comprehensive solution to climate change, although it is largely seen as a step in the right direction. In order to see real gains in slowing the effects of climate change, there must be an aggressive transition from fossil fuel dependence to a more diverse energy mix supplemented by renewables. Such a transition could fundamentally upend the current world order and shift the balance of power. However, fostering this paradigm shift will require both extensive technological innovation as well as a willingness to adapt.

The global need for innovation in renewable energy technology is growing and will continue to rise in the future. What is driving this growth is aging infrastructure networks in the developed world and rapidly growing networks in the developing world, especially in India and China. Though the cost of building and implementing renewables has markedly decreased in recent years, more will be required as demand for electricity rises dramatically in the developing world. In China for example, demand for electricity is projected to grow by over 70 percent by 2040 and in India it will almost triple by the same year. The class makeup in these countries will also affect their energy needs as China’s middle class swells and tens of millions are lifted out of poverty in India. These countries will need a primarily renewable, high-capacity energy infrastructure that is also cost-effective. The planet simply cannot afford a fossil fuel-dependent India or China.

Africa’s need for innovation in renewables is more nuanced than that of China or India—it does not simply lie in the generation of energy but also in its distribution. The International Energy Agency (IEA) describes Africa as a continent “rich in energy resources but poor in energy supply.” The energy infrastructure all over the continent is still quite poor because of chronic underinvestment, corruption, and a generally weak regulatory framework. Nonetheless, the IEA projects half of the continent’s growth in energy demand to come from renewables by 2040. Africa needs more innovation in renewable technology to overcome the many social, political, and economic challenges in a cost-effective way. The decisions about the continent’s energy needs today will profoundly affect its future. Though Africa will not influence energy markets in the same way as the two Asian powerhouses, it might be able to “leapfrog” the need for fossil fuels, save billions on infrastructure spending, and drive African progress for decades to come.

Though the drivers of future global energy demand will be in Asia, many of the innovators in renewable technology are in Northern Europe. For example, the Netherlands recently made headlines for its plan to build the world’s largest offshore wind farm. The wind farm would implement a low-cost cable technology that makes it more economical to transport power from the installation to land-based infrastructure. The Dutch plan is part of a broader commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by switching to renewables. In fact, the government has promised to reduce emissions to zero by 2050 in its Energy Agenda, and the trend is not just in the Netherlands. In Sweden, more than 80 percent of energy comes from nuclear and hydropower. In Norway, 98 percent of all energy comes from renewable sources. Investing in and adopting renewables is important to countries throughout the region, exemplifying the kind of commitment that other countries should adopt towards climate change.

In the wake of America’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords, one country emerged as a potential new leader in the fight against climate change: China. In recent years, Beijing has quietly invested billions in green energy, and the US retreat shed new light on the extent of their renewable energy dominance. In a decade, China’s solar power capacity increased 800-fold, catapulting it to the top spot in solar investment and usage worldwide. China already spends US$100 billion every year on renewable energy, outspending the United States and European Union put together. By 2020, the country will invest US$360 billion, making them a global renewable energy superpower. China has proven itself an innovator in renewable technology research and development, outspending the United States two-to-one in 2016. China is also taking decisive action against the scourge of air pollution, a consequence of the nation’s ambitious growth and development targets. Their reliance on coal, though shrinking, comes at a heavy price as the pollution is a detriment to public health outcomes and often the subject of negative press abroad. Beijing has scrapped plans for new coal-fired power plants, announcing the cancellation of 85 plants at the beginning of 2017. Slowing demand for coal in China will mean that most new growth in energy demand will be satisfied by renewables. Most remarkably, China is spending US$32 billion on renewable energy infrastructure abroad. This provides domestic firms with opportunities to innovate and earn influence around the world. By 2040, renewables will account for nearly two thirds of energy generation in the country, while demand for power continues to grow. China’s commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels, coupled with changes in the global energy market, are a signal to the rest of the world that things are changing.

Where are we after the Paris Agreement? The changing global energy landscape will undoubtedly shake the balance of power in the twenty-first century. As nations scramble to meet their energy needs, the early adopters and innovators in renewable energy will be the ones leading the fight against climate change. The greatest challenge of the modern era will not simply be overcoming climate change, but also finding a sustainable way to fuel human progress in the long term.